Gessey Global PV Market Insights-Poland


1. Brief Intro-Poland

The Republic of Poland is located in central Europe, bordering Ukraine and Belarus to the east, Germany to the west, and the Baltic Sea to the north. It covers an area of 312,000 square kilometers and has a population of 38 million. Poland belongs to the category of large European countries in terms of population and area. After the upheaval of eastern Europe, Poland’s economy has developed rapidly, becoming one of the fastest developing countries in The European region and now the 6th largest economy in the EU.

In 2016, The Polish economy gradually recovered from the impact caused by the 2008 financial crisis. In 2018, the nominal GDP growth rate reached 11.2%, showing a remarkable momentum of development.

Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

The climate of Poland belongs to the continental climate of Eastern Europe and the maritime climate of Western Europe. However, similar to other European countries, the higher latitude makes it less exposed to sunlight. The average annual solar exposure is only 1000-1150, which is only equivalent to northeastern China and northern Japan.

Annual Radiation(KWH/m2)1000-11501050-24501000-21001051900-1300
source: solargis

2. Poland Power Structure

Poland’s secondary industry accounts for about 25% of GDP, which is higher than other European countries and has a large demand for electricity. At the same time, the rapid development of the economy has enabled Poland’s total electricity output to grow year by year. In 2018, the electricity output increased by about 3% compared with 2015 and 24% compared with 1990. Demand for electricity continues to go strong.

Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

Similar to neighbouring Germany, Poland has rich coal reserves and a chronically high share of coal-fired power. Thanks to the efforts of the Polish government, coal(fossil) has gradually reduced its share of power generation from 87% to 78% since 2010, and remains the main source of power generation. Reducing the proportion of coal in power generation is the main direction for the Polish government to formulate relevant energy policies. In addition to increasing the proportion of non-coal thermal power generation such as natural gas and biomass, renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power and solar energy are also actively increasing the installation capacity.

Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

Poland’s renewable energy has grown rapidly since 2010, with wind power as the main source. Wind installations accounted for 76% of all renewable energy installations by 2016. solar power generation has been installed on a certain scale since 2015. In 2019, the newly installed capacity will reach 738MW, and it is expected to add nearly 1GW in 2020. It is the fastest renewable energy in Poland in recent years.

Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

3. Related Developing Policy

  • Renewable Energy bills and amendments

The Polish government first enacted the Renewable Energy Bill in 2016 and issued amendments in 2018. The main purpose of the bill is to promote the PPA bidding auction system, replacing the previous green certificate trading system. In December 2016, the first PPA bidding and auction was held. The 2018 amendment amended the specific technical requirements for the auction of renewable energy, including biomass, hydropower, geothermal, wind power, photovoltaic and other renewable energy. The PPA is generally formulated for 15 years, and the auction plan and capacity are announced in advance every year.

  • The Capacity Market Act

The Capacity Market Act, issued in 2018, clarifies the rules and structure of power supply to the electricity Market in legal form. The Act aims to encourage new generation Capacity and ensure stable electricity consumption, which is a favorable guarantee for the PPA system.

  • Poland’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan

Starting in 2018, the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan stipulates that the Polish Ministry of Energy will issue renewable energy development goals once a year. The development plan for 2020 aims to reach 20GW of total photovoltaic installations in Poland by 2040.

  • Other Policy

FIT policy: In Poland, only biogas and small hydropower stations are eligible for FIT.

Net metering: Poland’s net metering policy is called “power generation support”. Small power generation projects with a maximum capacity of 50KW or less are eligible for feed-in tariff subsidies.

Tax benefits: Renewable energy generation is free from electricity sales and consumption taxes in Poland.

Loan incentives and subsidies: The government provides low-interest loans and subsidies to support the purchase and installation costs of renewable energy installations.

4. Solar Power Generation Development

The number of solar installations in Poland has been developing since 2015 and has increased significantly since 2018. In 2019, the new installed capacity reached 738MW, 2.6 times of the new installed capacity in 2018, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 1GW for the first time, reaching 1.3GW.

The national action plan for energy efficiency aims to reach 20GW of cumulative solar installations by 2040, with at least 1GW of new installations per year after 2020. Poland will be a veritable Giga level market.

Thanks to the power generation capacity of solar projects acquired in the PPA auction, GNEI expects that the annual increase of solar installations in Poland will reach 900MW, 1400MW and 1150MW respectively in 2020-2022.

POLAND Solar install capacity and forecast-MW-GesseyNewEnergyInfo
Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

GNEI tracking PPA in Poland of bidding, auction is shown in the table below, under 1 mw capacity of renewable energy in the auction, photovoltaic (pv) project is the biggest winner, above 1 mw capacity auction, photovoltaic (pv) project, for the first time in November 2019 is expected to continue to fall as the cost of solar modules, above 1 mw project in pv will up a larger share.

From 2016 to 2019, a total of 1,700MW of photovoltaic projects will be auctioned, which is the most powerful guarantee for Poland’s installation capacity in 2020-2022.

Renewable energy AuctionAuction DateCapacity(MW)Remarks
Below 1MW 1st AuctionDec. 20168084 projects
Below 1MW 2nd AuctionJune, 2017250472 renewable projects, 352 solar projects
Below 1MW 3rd AuctionDec,2018350554 solar projects
Below 1MW 4th AuctionJan, 2020750750MW in total
Above 1MW 1st AuctionDec, 20180all for Wind projects
Above 1MW 2nd AuctionNov, 20193002.5GW total capacity, 2.2GW in wind
2016-2019 Total Auction17002 years limit of project construction time
Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

5. Chinese Solar Module Export to Poland

According to GNEI’s module export data, China exported 35MW pv modules to Poland in the whole of 2018 and climbed to 362MW in 2019. From January to May of 2020, the export volume has reached 436MW, and the monthly export volume has exceeded 100MW.

In terms of the proportion of Mono and polycrystalline, the Polish market still prefers polycrystalline solar module in 2018-2019. From 2020, monocrystal solar module will occupy the main share. In May 2020, the proportion of 60-cell(or 120HCC) modules was the highest, which was caused by the successive installation of small solar projects under 1MW auctioned in Poland.

Chinese Module export to POLAND MW-GesseyNewEnergyInfo
Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

According to the export analysis report of GNEI: from January to May in 2020, among the shipping brands in the Polish market, Risen has the highest shipment volume, followed by Shenzhou, Tongwei, Sunport, ZHShine and other companies.

top 10 solar module Export companies to Poland-2020 Jan-May-MW-GesseyNewEnergyInfo
Source: sorted by GesseyNewEnergyInfo, July 2020

6. Summary

Poland’s solar market started late, breaking through only in 2019. The Polish government has a strong incentive to replace the country’s coal power stations and reduce the proportion of coal used to meet Poland’s and the EU’s energy efficiency targets. Poland mainly relies on PPA bidding and auction policy to allocate renewable energy generation capacity. Small, distributed, household photovoltaic power stations below 1MW have been developed first and have repeatedly won auction allocation capacity. It is expected to add 900MW of photovoltaic capacity in 2020 and 1400MW in 2021.

With the constant adjustment of pv industry supply chain price, solar panel price will be significantly reduced in 2019-2020. It is expected that PV projects will gradually become the leading role of bidding and auction by virtue of the cost advantage of per KWH, and the installed demand of PV in The Polish market will be more robust.

About GesseyNewEnergyInfo-GNEI

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