- Posted by: GNEI editor
- Category: Global PV Market Insights Report
Affected by Coronavirus, in 2020, the demand for PV estimated installation will be reduced to 110-120GW.
Up to April 6th, there are more than 1,336,000 cases confirmed globally, and more than 73,905 people have died worldwide. Besides China, about 11 countries including Italy, U.S, Spain, Germany have had more than 10,000 confirmed cases, among which U.S Coronavirus has exceeded 210,000. The virus is supposed to spread worldwide in the second quarter of 2020. The inflection point is expected to turn up in late May, and the situation will improve in the third quarter of 2020.
CoronaVirus Impact on major markets
The latest data from GNEI(GesseyNewEnergyInfo) shows that if the outbreak is contained in the third quarter, the growth of PV installation is expected to be 110-120GW, 20GW lower than expectation of 130-140GW. The growth is almost equally to that in the last year. The declined 20GW installation is mainly attributed to the worst outbreak in the second quarter. In addition, the demand for distributed installation of PV was affected worse, and some centralized ground power plants installation are expected to delay to Q3 and Q4.
According to “GNEI: the Report of Global PV Market Demand “, by country, the demand of Germany, Spain, Mexico, and Vietnam will be reduced by more than 20%, and the United States, Australia, Ukraine, South Korea, etc. will be reduced by 10%. China is expected to appear least affected by the outbreak. If the deadline of grid connection for Chinese bidding project of 2020 is not postponed, the new demand for installation will remain at 30-35GW during the year from China.
Among the key markets for solar, the peak of installation in the US market will occur in Q4 due to ITC’s fee reduction, so Q2’s impact will be limited. The ground-based centralized power plants based on the SDE + auction project in the Dutch market can have PV installed after a moderate delay of 1-2 quarters, so the Q2’s impact is also limited. The distributed installation ratio of the Japanese market and India is less than 1/5, and Q2 is usually the off-season of distributed installation. So the demand for installation is supposed to decline within 5% throughout the year. However, The German and Spanish markets are hit harder. The distributed project-based installation and the grid parity in the market will greatly affect the demand for non-life products due to inelastic demand, such as solar. It is expected that the installation for the whole year will drop by more than 20% from the expectation, and a year-on-year decline from 2019. Australia also has 50% demand for distributed installation, which will decline 8-10% from the original expectation, and will also decline slightly from 2019.
As the impact of overseas disease is still gradually spreading, in the second quarter of 2020, the demand for installation in all markets except China is likely to reach nadir. Among them, the centralized power plants are expected have PV installed after 1-2 quarters, which will largely improve the decline in installed capacity. The new global installed capacity in 2020 after the impact of the epidemic is expected to be at least the same as in 2019.
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